Chapter 2

Population Overview

Data on the 2021 population of Greater Lincolnshire and Rutland taken from the 2021 Census shows that there are a total of 1,136,000 residents across Greater Lincolnshire and Rutland. This figure has risen by 57,916 according to 2011 Census figures, with increased populations across all of the wider area except in North East Lincolnshire which actually saw a 1.7% drop in population. The largest recorded increase in population by local authority area was seen in Lincoln at 11.1%, and the lowest increase was seen in North Lincolnshire, at just 1.3%.

Populations projections available via the Lincolnshire Research Observatory, North East Lincolnshire Data Observatory, the North Lincolnshire Local Plan, and key statistical data on the Rutland County Council website show that the Greater Lincolnshire LEP area and the county of Lincolnshire are projected to experience a steady increase in population over the next 20 years.

Overall, the data suggests that there will be an increasing need for physical activities based upon an increasing number of residents across Lincolnshire and Rutland over the next few years, with the greatest increase in need experienced in East Lindsey.

Gender (with a focus on Women and Girls)

Population estimates for 2019 across Greater Lincolnshire and Rutland show that roughly half of the population of each area is made up of men, and half is made up of women.

Lincolnshire data show that the district of Lincoln has the largest proportion of women and girls who are of working age, whilst the lowest proportion is in East Lindsey. Rutland data show that 55.9% of women and girls are of working age, whilst North and North East Lincolnshire figures show that both areas have 59.2% of their women and girls who are of working age.

Using Live Births data for 2020 from NOMIS, the number of women who were either pregnant or up to one-year post-natal in 2020/21 can be estimated to be 9,999.

Age (with a focus on the Over 65s)

The demography of the UK is changing as people are living longer. There are a growing number of people of pensionable age, and a reducing number of children in the UK. In addition to this, the average life expectancy by 2045 is anticipated to be 82.2 years for men and 85.3 years for women. This demonstrates that the need for physical activities suitable for people over the age of 65 will increase significantly over the next 10-20 years across the UK.

Healthy Life Expectancy at Birth (HLE) figures for the UK provided by ONS show that the UK average HLE is 62.2 years for males, and 63.6 years for females. HLE figures for the East Midlands (including Lincolnshire and Rutland) are slightly lower at 62.0 years for males and 61.8 years for females, a reduction of 0.8 years for men and 0.3 years for women on 2015-2017 figures.

Ethnicity (with a focus on Ethnic Minorities)

Overall, 93.29% of the population describe themselves as being “White: English/Welsh/Scottish/Northern Irish/British”.

Of the remaining 6.71%:

• Other white backgrounds make up 4% of the overall population. That classification is largest in Boston, South Holland and North East Lincolnshire, with between 6-8 thousand residents in each of these three areas.
  
  
• 1.3% of the population of Greater Lincolnshire and Rutland reported that their ethnicity was Asian or British Asian in the 2011 Census. North Lincolnshire was the area with the most residents describing their ethnicity as “Asian/Asian British”, at 3% of the area’s total population (14,359 individuals).
  
  
• In 2011, there were relatively few individuals who described their ethnicity as “Black/African/Caribbean/Black British” across Greater Lincolnshire and Rutland, with a total of just 3,717 residents, equating to 0.34% of the area’s population.
  
  
• Across Greater Lincolnshire and Rutland, in 2011, 9,009 individuals (0.84% of the total population) described their ethnic background as “Mixed/Multiple”. The largest number of these residents lived in North Lincolnshire, where they comprised 0.74% of the population.
  
  
• Individuals from “Other” ethnic backgrounds made up 1.22% of the population of Greater Lincolnshire and Rutland in 2011. [ET1]

It is anticipated that there will be a growth in the ethnically diverse populations of Greater Lincolnshire shown in the 2021 Census.

Socio-economic Factors

Data on the 2019 IMD for the Greater Lincolnshire and Rutland taken from www.gov.uk shows that there are more Lower Super Output Areas (LSOAs) in the most deprived 10% in England in North East Lincolnshire than in any other area of Greater Lincolnshire and Rutland.

The figure is even higher than that of the county of Lincolnshire as a whole. Within Lincolnshire, the district with the highest number of LSOAs in the most deprived 10% in England is East Lindsey. East Lindsey also has the highest number of LSOAs in decile 2, showing that overall, it is the most deprived area within the county of Lincolnshire.

The least deprived areas overall are Rutland, North Kesteven and South Kesteven.

People living with mental health difficulties

NHS Digital Quality and Outcomes Framework 2019-20 data shows the numbers of GP patients who are recorded as having Depression, Dementia or Other Mental health difficulties. Overall, there were 141,156 cases of mental health difficulties across these three categories in Greater Lincolnshire and Rutland (N.B. some patients may be counted twice if they have more than one diagnosis).

• The number of patients with depression across the whole of Greater Lincolnshire and Rutland is 120,278, which is 11.88% of registered patients. The proportion of patients who have depression is the highest in North Lincolnshire at 14% of all GP registered patients.
  
  
• The number of patients with dementia across the whole of Greater Lincolnshire and Rutland is 11,283 which is 0.84% of those registered. The proportion of patients who have dementia is the greatest in Lincolnshire at 0.94% of all GP registered patients.
  
  
• The number of patients with other mental health difficulties across the whole of Greater Lincolnshire and Rutland is 9,595 which is 0.81% of those registered. The proportion of patients who have other mental health difficulties is the greatest in North East Lincolnshire at 1.02% of all GP registered patients.

Chapter Two, Recommendations

As demonstrated by this chapter, the forward trends in population growth and demographics in Greater Lincolnshire and Rutland show a need for more dedicated programs that target women and girls, over-65s, members of various ethnic minorities, and people living with mental health difficulties. As such, the recommendations that are put forward are aimed at addressing these needs:

- Direct engagement with stakeholder groups, particularly ethnic and religious minorities, to better understand what they need from the Sport, Physical Activity, and Leisure sector.

Examples include:

• Engaging with local neighbourhood groups and dedicated charities.
• Developing promotional materials in languages other than English.
• Speaking to community leaders and asking their support in promoting various activities.
  
  

- Direct engagement with women and girls from different demographic groups to better understand the barriers to access they face.

Examples include:

• Engaging with local groups and charities.
• Engaging with women in various spaces, such as food banks, hospitals, and schools.
• Lobbying for programs aimed at supporting women and girls.
• Lobbying for more programs aimed at freeing up women’s time (such as childcare support, family carer support, etc.)
  
  

- The introduction of dedicated programs for people of different groups, as informed by direct stakeholder engagement.

Examples include:

• Clear communication strategies to reach selected stakeholder groups.
• Developed formal and informal communication channels.
• “You said, we did” – keeping stakeholders informed on how their feedback is being implemented.
• Following up on promised changes or following up with progress updates.
  
  

- Resources, training, and support for providers to better engage with people living with mental health difficulties.

Examples include:

• Social prescribing.
• Lobbying for more funding for dedicated training and skills development.
• Lobbying for more evidence-based training to support people with different mental health difficulties.
  
  

- Funding and support for widening participation programs.

Examples include:

• Meal and exercise clubs, as pilot-tested by Lincolnshire County Council.
• Warm spaces and meals being offered alongside sport, physical activity, and leisure.
• Lobbying for funded spaces on sport, physical activity, and leisure activities for eligible households.
  
  

- Support for programs aimed at over-65s.

Examples could include:

• Access support – increasing the physical accessibility of sport, physical activity, and leisure providers.
• Funding for skills and training programs aimed at developing the workforce to work with over-65s.
• Taking activities on the road to local community centres and small villages.
  
  

The above list is advisory and non-exhaustive.